The overwhelming majority of weighted, peer-reviewed evidence supports that observed warming since ~1850 is primarily driven by anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions. Remaining uncertainty concerns the magnitude of regional effects, not attribution itself.
More than half of the observed increase in global mean surface temperature since the mid-20th century is attributable to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations and other human forcings.
Multiple independent lines of evidence converge on human activity as the dominant driver of post-industrial warming IPCC 2021: instrumental temperature records, paleoclimate reconstructions, satellite radiance measurements, and forced-response modeling all point to greenhouse-gas emissions as the primary forcing. Quantitative literature surveys find near-unanimous endorsement among papers taking a position Cook 2013.
Where uncertainty remains: the precise magnitude of equilibrium climate sensitivity (the AR6 likely range is 2.5–4 °C per CO₂ doubling), regional precipitation patterns, and the timing of slow-feedback responses such as ice-sheet dynamics. None of these uncertainties undermine the attribution conclusion itself Bindoff 2013.
Dissent in the literature is concentrated in two narrow areas: (1) papers proposing alternative drivers such as solar variability Scafetta 2019, which the weighted evidence finds insufficient to explain observed warming, and (2) methodological critiques of specific attribution techniques rather than the conclusion Lindzen 2011.
The score is computed deterministically from the citations below, following the methodology in the manuscript (§5). Nothing is hand-tuned per entry — change the evidence and the number moves.
| Citation | sᵢ | mᵢ | tᵢ | e^(−tᵢ/T) | mᵢ·e^(−tᵢ/T) | sᵢ·mᵢ·e^(−tᵢ/T) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPCC 2021 | +1 | 10.0 | 5y | 0.882 | 8.82 | +8.82 |
| Cook 2013 | +1 | 9.0 | 13y | 0.723 | 6.50 | +6.50 |
| Bindoff 2013 | +1 | 8.0 | 13y | 0.723 | 5.78 | +5.78 |
| Hausfather 2020 | +1 | 7.0 | 6y | 0.861 | 6.02 | +6.02 |
| Scafetta 2019 | 0 | 3.5 | 7y | 0.839 | 2.94 | +0.00 |
| Lindzen 2011 | −1 | 2.0 | 15y | 0.687 | 1.37 | −1.37 |
| Σ over citations | 39.5 | 31.45 Mₚ | +25.76 Xₚ·Mₚ |
Reading it: the verdict is Strong scientific consensus · Yes. Direction comes only from Xₚ (tanh is always positive); certainty comes from tanh(Mₚ/W₀) = 0.99. Because Cₚ = 50 when Xₚ = 0 regardless of mass, a balanced stalemate and an unstudied question both read as 50 — which is why Mₚ is always shown alongside the score.
| Revision | Score Cₚ | Mass Mₚ | Center Xₚ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current revision | 91↑ +2 | 31.4 | +0.82 |
| 22 May 2026 | 89↑ +1 | 30.1 | +0.81 |
| 8 May 2026 | 88↑ +2 | 28.4 | +0.80 |
| 29 Apr 2026 | 86 | 26.0 | +0.79 |